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Ina U.S.-China trade war, who has more to lose?

(华盛顿邮报)中美贸易大战,谁或成最大输家?



By Heather Long

作者:Heather Long

China imposed tariffs on 128 U.S.goods on April 2. The move is retaliation for tariffs President Trump announcedon Chinese aluminum and steel. (Victoria Walker/The Washington Post)

近日,美国总统特朗普宣布将对中国出口的铝和钢产品增收关税。作为报复性措施,4月2日,中国宣布向美国128种产品增收进口关税。

As the U.S.-China trade spat getsuglier, people in both countries are asking: Who has more to lose? And how doesthis end?

正当中美两国因贸易问题而脸红争吵时,广大吃瓜群众不禁会问:究竟谁是这场贸易战的最大输家呢?贸易战争将会以何种形式结束呢?

China has more to lose economically inan all-out trade war. The Chinese economy is dependent on exports, and nearly20 percent of its exports go to the United States. It sold $506 billion instuff and services to the United States last year. In contrast, the UnitedStates sold $130 billion to the Chinese.

中国或在经济上成最大输家。众所周知,中国的经济发展非常依赖于出口,而且在中国的总出口份额中,对美出口份额就占到20%。去年,中国共向美国出口了价值5060亿美元的产品和服务。相比之下,美国向中国出口总额仅为1300亿美元。

“In a serious economic battle, the U.S. wins. There is noquestion about it,” said Derek Scissors, a resident scholar atthe American Enterprise Institute who has helped advise the administration onChina.

美国企业研究所常驻学者——史剑道表示“如果会爆发一场激烈的经济战,毫无疑问,美国将会成为赢家?!?br />
But this isn't just an economic fight, it's also political, andthere’s a strong case that President Trump would be less able tosustain a protracted conflict than the Chinese — especially with the 2018midterm elections coming.

但问题是,中美之间的对决不仅仅是经济层面的,更包含了政治考量。很有可能,特朗普总统没有能力和中国打一场持久战——更何况,特朗普马上将要面临2018年中期选举。

Chinese President Xi Jinping runs a communist country that hasjust granted him theability to rule for life. He controls themedia in his country and is also sitting on top of about $3 trillion in surpluscash.

而中国治理下的GC主义国家可以轻易实现各方面的调控和管理。中国不仅控制了媒体,还拥有大约3万亿的外汇储备。

All of this means Xi can react quickly to Trump. He caneven aid Chinese companies that get hurt in the coming months andsubsidize soybean prices so Chinese consumers don't face massive sticker shockat the store. The Chinese used similar tactics during the global financialcrisis of 2008 and 2009, spending heavily from their surplus reserves to stimulatetheir economy and insulate their people from pain. The Chinese cashreserves are not as large now, but they still have more than the United Stateshas.

正因如此,中国可以对特朗普的行为进行快速反应。甚至,一旦贸易战爆发,中国可以资助那些受到牵连的中国公司,并向企业提供补贴以控制大豆的价格,从而中国的消费者不会受到大的冲击。此次,中国所采取的策略与其在2008-2009年全球金融?;械牟呗岳嗨?,他们将大量使用自身的外汇储备来刺激经济发展,使人民免受痛苦。虽然,中国目前的储备不如从前,但是其规模仍然要大于美国。

In2018, “China can withstand much more than the U.S.”

2018年“中国能够比美国承受更多损失”

Trump doesn't have it so easy. He's already getting phone callsfrom Republican lawmakers who are angry at what he's doing with the tariffs. OnThursday evening, GOP Sen. Ben Sasse of Nebraska accused the president ofhaving "no actual plan to win right now"and "threatening to light American agriculture on fire."

特朗普想要赢得和中国的贸易战可没这么容易。他的手机早已被共和党议员打爆了,这些议员对特朗普的关税政策表达了异常的愤怒。周四晚上,内布拉斯加州的共和党参议员本·萨斯指责特朗普,说“特朗普根本无法提供速胜的计划,而他这一玩火行为要把美国农业都给烧了?!?br />
Trump faces backlash from Wall Street, fromexecutives of companies such as Boeing and from soybeanfarmers in the Midwest, many of whom votedfor Trump and feel betrayed. Some GOP leaders fear Trump's actionscould costthe party seats in the 2018 midtermelections.

不仅如此,特朗普也受到了国内势力的强烈抵制,包括华尔街、波音等公司的高管以及美国中西部的大豆农民,这些人曾投票支持特朗普,但现在他们感觉自己被队友卖了。一些共和党领导人担忧,特朗普的行为可能会让他们在2018年中期选举中丢掉自己的政党席位。

“Within the next 12 months, China can withstand much more thanthe U.S. can withstand,” said Evan Medeiros, managing director atthe Eurasia Group and a former senior adviser to President Barack Obama onAsia. “The Chinese aren't constrained by the rule of law or a representativedemocracy.”

欧亚集团董事总经理、前奥巴马政府亚洲事务最高顾问麦艾文说“在未来一年中,中国可以比美国承受更多的损失,因为中国可不会受到代议民主制的限制?!?br />
While much of the focus so far has been on tariffs — Trump hasthreatened to put tariffs on about $150 billion worth of Chinese goods andservices, and China has respondedso far with threats of tariffs on $50 billion of U.S. goods — China has more levers it can pull to punish the UnitedStates.

虽然大家都在关注关税增收问题——即特朗普威胁向中国价值1500亿美元的产品和服务增收关税,而中国目前也威胁向美国价值500亿美元产品增收关税——但实际上,中国手中有更多的牌可以用来惩罚美国。

The Chinese could stop cooperating on North Korea, theycould sell some U.S. debt to roil markets and they could make life harderfor U.S. companies operating in China, such as Nike, Disney or Apple.These Chinese actions are seen as unlikely, especially selling U.S. Treasurys.For the Trump administration, corresponding moves aren't even on the table,as the U.S. government doesn't have as much direct control over companiesoperating within its borders.

作为反击,中国可以拒绝与美国在朝鲜问题上进行合作,他们可以出售美国债务来扰乱美国市场,甚至给中国大陆的美国企业下绊子,比如耐克、迪士尼或苹果公司。不过,这些中国的反击可能不会发生,尤其是出售美国债券。而对于特朗普政府,他们甚至没有可以拿的上台面的反击措施,因为,他们对国内的企业并没有足够的直接控制。

Trump is in a tricky situation. He has long argued theU.S. isalready in a trade war with China and that the U.S. has been getting attackedfor years. He appears ready for a fight. As his press secretary SarahHuckabee Sanders said Wednesday, "We may have a little bit ofshort-term pain, but we're certainly going to have long-term success."

更糟的是,特朗普在国内正面临另外一个棘手的局面。他一直在美国称,美国早已和中国开启贸易战了,而且美国已经被攻击多年。似乎,他已经为贸易战准备好了。新闻发言人萨拉·赫卡比·桑德斯周四称:“我们可能会在遭受短期的阵痛,但最终我们一定会获得胜利?!?br />
He is also feeling confident after his administration renegotiatedthe South Korean free-trade deal togive U.S. automakers greater access to that market. But South Korea is theworld's No. 11 economy, and the country depends on the United States formilitary aid. China is the No. 2 economy, and it does not feel the same degreeof pressure to give in to Trump.

韩国自由贸易协定重新谈判后,特朗普有信心让美国汽车制造商获取韩国市场的更多份额。但需要注意的是,韩国仅为世界上规模排名第十一的经济体,而且这个国家极度依赖于美国的军事援助。相比下,中国为世界上规模第二的经济体,她可不会轻易地向特朗普屈服。

Domestically, Chinese politicians face pressure to project theircountry as a world power, making rolling over for a bellicose U.S. president awildly unpopular proposal.

而在中国国内,政治家们受到公众的压力,需要将国家打造成世界强国的形象。当他们遇到好战的美国总统特朗普,双方势必会发生冲突。

“There is no way on earth China can be seen to be kowtowing tothe U.S. on this. Xi cannot say: All right, Trump threatened us, so we'dbetter give in,” said Phil Levy, a senior fellow at the Chicago Council onGlobal Affairs.

芝加哥全球事务委员会高级研究员——菲尔·列维表示“在贸易战这方面,中国无论如何都不会向美国屈服”。中国国家主席不可能说“好吧,既然特朗普威胁了我们,我们就投降吧?!?br />