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Chinastrikes back at Trump's political vulnerabilities

中国抓住特朗普的政治短板进行反击

The surprisingly swift and strong reaction from China this weekseemed to be a message to Trump that the Chinese think they can play a longgame.

而本周中国的快速且强烈的反应则向特朗普传达了一个消息,中国人认为他们能够和美国打一场持久战。

Trump has now threatened just over $150 billion in tariffs --or, to put it another way, he's threatened taxes on about 30 percent of thegoods and services the Chinese sell to the United States. It's unlikelyto damage the overall economy significantly,but it's getting to the point where American consumers are likely to facehigher prices on televisions, shoes, clothes and possibly even iPhones.

如今,特朗普威胁向价值1500亿美元的中国产品增收进口关税——或者说,特朗普威胁,向中国出售给美国30%的产品和服务中征收进口关税。也就是说,这不会对总体经济产生太大的破坏。但是,美国的消费者们可能会遇到更高的物价了,包括电视、鞋子、衣物甚至苹果手机。

And certain places in America are about to feel great pain ifthe Chinese follow through with their threats to retaliate. It's hard forfarmers and winemakers to understand why they are casualties in a supposedfight against China stealing intellectual property and industrial know-how.

而一旦中国将报复进行到底,美国的一些地方可能会遭受更大的损失和痛苦。当美国与中国因偷窃知识产权和技术而进行相互攻击时,一些农民和酒商们会一脸懵逼,完全不清楚为何自己会成为这场冲突的牺牲者。

The Brookings Institution looked at all the products China hasthreatened to put tariffs on so far. They would affect about 2.1 million jobsthat are spread across 2,783 U.S. counties. Eighty-two percent of thosecounties voted for Trump in the last presidential election.

通过研究中国将增收进口关税的所有产品,布鲁金斯研究所发现:中国的反击行为将会影响美国2783个郡县中一共210万个职业岗位,而其中,有82%的人群在上次选举中投票给特朗普。

“Xi is probably doing a more rationale analysis of the situationthan the Trump administration seems to be doing,” said J. Stapleton Roy,who was U.S. ambassador to China under presidents George H.W. Bush and BillClinton. “The Trump administration doesn't seem to grasp the fact that they aredamaging the wrong people (the farmers)” in this fight.

美国前总统布什和克林顿政府时期的前美国驻华大使芮效俭说“很显然,中国对于形式的分析要比特朗普政府要更加充分。特朗普政府根本没有发现,在这次攻击中,他们误伤了自己人(农民)?!?br />
Whatdoes “winning” look like?

“胜利”的形式?

A key problem for Trump is that he doesn't have clearand coherent demands of China. He and his team talk about three problems: thetrade deficit, Chinese intellectual property (IP) theft, and China's industrialpolicy (known as “Made in China 2025”).

作为最关键的问题,特朗普对于中国根本没有一个清晰的诉求。特朗普和团队一直以来都在讨论三个问题:贸易逆差、中国窃取知识产权和中国工业政策(也就是“中国制造2025”).

But there's no specific request, and the lack ofone is allowing the Chinese to play the victims in a scenario where theUnited States is supposed to be trying to correct years of wrongs.

但是,特朗普并没有提出具体的要求,正因如此,这使得中国可以扮演一个受害者的角色。特朗普政府应该努力改正多年的错误。

“I want the U.S. to do more against China, but I want theU.S. to do more with a plan,” Scissors said. “We need veryspecific asks of the Chinese. Instead, we just say, ‘we want you to change.’ ”

斯萨斯说“我希望美国可以和中国进行更多的对抗,而对日本则建立更多的合作。我们需要对中国提出更加明确具体的需求,而不是仅仅要求其进行改变?!?br />
The president and his team sometimes say different things abouttrade and what the goals are. Trump likes to use confusion as a negotiatingtactic, but it also opens up more ways to “win.”

甚至,有时候总统特朗普和他的管理团队对于贸易和目标存在很大分歧。特朗普经?;崦曰蠖允掷醋魑概胁呗?,但这种方法可以有更多机会取得胜利。

“Trump can probably be bought off withsome package of goods to reduce the trade deficit. His advisers want China torewrite its entire industrial policy,” Medeiros said.

“特朗普很可能会说服中国购买一些美国产品来减少贸易赤字。而他的顾问则希望中国能够改变自身的产业政策?!?br />
Whatthe endgame looks like

结局会是什么样子?

Trump has famously said a trade war will be “easy to win.” Xiisn't saying that. Xi has made it clear he doesn't want a trade war, but hewill respond to anything Trump does. Xi seems to be setting himself up for aneasier political win if anything goes sour on the economic front.

特朗普曾说过,赢得贸易战是件极其容易的事情。而中国国家主席却从未说过这种话。中国明确表示自己不想要卷入贸易战,但是对于特朗普的挑衅会做出回应。一旦在经济方面出现问题,中国都试图在赢得政治上的胜利。

But in politics, Trump has proved himself a skillful salesman.Many strategists and longtime foreign policy experts say the most likelyscenario is Trump gets a few small concessions from China and declares victory.

但是,在政治方面,特朗普是一个老练的商人。正如很多战略家和对外顾问专家所言,最可能产生的结果就是,特朗普从中国得到了小范围的让步,然后就和大家宣布自己取得了胜利。

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said last week that China is preparedto ease market access for U.S. companies and stop forcing foreign companies totransfer technology. If Trump gets those kinds of concessions in writing,he would be able to say he did more for America against China than Obama,Bush or Clinton.

上周,中国国务院总理表示,将为美国企业进入中国市场提供便利,并会停止强迫国外企业向中国转移技术这一行为。如果特朗普实实在在地得到了这种让步,那么他肯定会宣称,在对抗中国方面,自己比奥巴马、布什或克林顿获得的成绩更多。

But those changes would do little to alter the recordU.S. trade deficit with China or to deter China from plans to gohead-to-head with the United States in many high-tech sectors soon. If Trumpwants those major concessions, he has to be ready to go much harder against theChinese.

但是,这些变化在改变美国贸易赤字,或者阻止中国在高端科技领域与美国竞争方面收效甚微。如果特朗普想要中国做出重大让步,他不得不加强对中国的攻击。

So far, Xi appears to be betting that Trump will cave topolitical pressure before that happens.

但是直到目前,中国所下的赌注就是,在以上事情发生前,特朗普会因为政治压力而向中国屈服。